Analysing a crazy transfer window

After a pretty chaotic deadline day that saw four deals being completed, including one that broke Blues' transfer record, it's nice now to be able to take a breath and look at what we're left with. I've been pretty critical of many of Blues' targets this summer, but the player's we've actually signed have been very good, and I'm pleasantly surprised by what we're going into this season with. I'd rather us have done the business six weeks ago, but you can't have everything.

Let's start with the positives of this window.

Jota. Oh man Jota. A statistical beast (as one would expect at Brentford) but also one who looks pretty spectacular to the naked eye. Given that Britt Assombalonga cost a reported eye-watering £14m and £60k a week, the £6.5m for Jota looks a steal - especially given he's on the cusp of his peak at just 26. A versatile forward with a superb goal record from wide and number ten, a player who creates and scores goals from all over and in a position we've needed a player for a while. I'm also a sucker for a Spanish creator with a wand of a left foot, so from a personal perspective, what a signing.

I don't need to dig into Jota's numbers too much because there's plenty of that around, but the headline number for me is 0.58 goals + assists per 90 minutes over his Brentford career. From wide or number ten who came into the league at 23/24, that's pretty spectacular.

Isaac Vassell is another signing I liked, much like I liked the Adams and Stewart signings last year. It's a reasonable gamble in a market of absurd prices. With Adams, he was just £1.4m and already worth five times that minimum - so gambling on players like that is always worthwhile when top Championship teams will pay £10m for players with a few goals. Vassell is a great gamble, because he has really really obvious skills - his raw physical attributes are clear for all to see and if he grabs a few goals he'll immediately be worth more than he cost.

The other Brentford lads look like genuine upgrades too - Maxime Colin I'm told is a very good attacking right back though I personally don't know much outside of what we've seen at St. Andrews. Harlee Dean similarly I've heard good things about, but given the competition is Michael Morrison, he's almost certainly an upgrade.

I'll go ahead and put Marc Roberts in the plusses pile, as that struck me as a very good move. Tall, athletic and capable on the ball, Roberts looks like the real deal - at first. He's been a bit shaky so far, but I'm fairly confident he'll be good in time, and this is based solely on first impressions at the time of the deal.

For that reason, I'll put Cheikh Ndoye in this list. Despite the fact it does go against some of my transfer principles, Ndoye was genuinely exciting as we needed to add midfielders to avoid relegation first and foremost. A player with a surprisingly good record from midfield for a player of his profile, Ndoye has had a mixed start at St. Andrews. A strong performance against Bristol City showed the plus sides of Ndoye - mobile, a good reader of the game, strong in the air and at times a threat going forward. However, his passing has been... hit and miss so far. But on first impressions, I liked it, and hope he can come good with good players round him.

Selling Clayton Donaldson, as saddening as it was to see him go, was the right move. He's aging and looks a shadow of the battering ram who led the line under Rowett. He'll always be remembered fondly for the last few years, as a genuinely good Championship player with an incredible tolerance to punishment, pace and clever movement that allowed Rowett's teams to function. That said, now was the right time to move him on as we look towards Jutkiewicz, Vassell and Gallagher to be the ones leading the line.

Let's move on to a few deals I wasn't too keen on.

Shipping Cheick Keita out to bring in Cohen Bramall is absolutely ludicrous to me. Keita is a gifted full back with an uncanny ability to get out of sticky situations and a useful outlet going forward - and the idea that he can't defend to me seems entirely unfounded. He's gone out on loan to a Serie A team - Italy, famed for its hatred of defensive football.

Bramall may well be a really good footballer - he may even be a direct upgrade - but assuming he is is insane. The kid has almost no actual experience and no games to base that opinion on, and not only that, won't be our player next year. Keita would be, and could improve hugely over a full season and give us a player of immense value. Hopefully, Keita will come back next year and be a Birmingham City player.

I'm also very irritated about the sale of Maikel Kieftenbeld, an intelligent if limited player who was quite often the best midfielder in the side. Yes, his passing and first touch left a lot to be desired, but the way he found space in attack and closed it in defence was admirable - it's not his fault he was forced into a role where he had to create. I'd go as far to say as holding midfielders go, he was our best option, given his stellar performances there under Rowett which certainly dwarf Craig Gardner's recent attempts. I could accept it, had we signed an upgrade (such as Simeon Slavchev) which I think Song was supposed to be, but alas, that did not come off. Instead, we weakened the one position that we were most desperate to strengthen.

That's the real disappointment of this window - but the most frustrating part is that it doesn't seem to be our fault (well, not entirely). We'd found targets, but hit snags on each one. Onazi couldn't get a work permit (which honestly reeks of incompetence on Blues' part, not the FA's), Acquah was forced to stay once Torino realised he was really good, which was odd, and Song we didn't want to pay the loan fee.

The silver lining to the proverbial dark cloud is Liam Walsh, who at least sounds like the player we wanted. The fact that it's only a short term loan is frustrating, but indicates to me we'll go in for Song again in January (just a hunch). I'll happily admit I know very little of Walsh, but Everton fans adore him and refer to him as a player who can dictate games.

The main gripe is the abundance of loan signings. It just screams short termism - yes, we have improved the squad, but if we don't go up this year (which is still really quite unlikely) we'll have paid a decent amount for these loan signings and have little to show for it. Sam Gallagher, for example, was not a deal I particularly liked. He looks like a better version of Jutkiewicz, which is handy, but it's a hell of a lot to pay for one year of an inexperienced if willing centre-forward with a not-too-exciting goal record. Carl Jenkinson was a legitimate upgrade, but without an option to buy, I don't love the deal.

Jeremie Boga I liked a bit more, but that's mainly a personal bias towards players who can dribble. I'd prefer to get players in permanently, but finding them is tough.

Jason Lowe, eh. Hard to have an opinion. Looks like a panic buy but on a free, relatively low wages I guess it could be ok. Not one I'm particularly excited by.

David Stockdale, at the time I wasn't convinced about, as it seemed like a position that didn't need improving on, and I thought Stockdale would be on a fair whack. However, I was one of few Blues fans who wasn't that high on Kuszczak, who I've partially blamed for set-piece problems over the last few years as he doesn't command his area in the air and it leads to problems from wide set-pieces. Stockdale already appears to be better in that regard, his distribution seems far better and he's still a good shot stopper. At first, though, I wasn't keen.

I didn't like selling Ryan Shotton, as he's a very good centre back and an underrated distributor, but there were rumours he wanted to leave, and replacing him with Dean and Roberts seems like a fine exchange.

Whilst there are a lot of deals I wasn't crazy about, in the short term, Blues have the best squad we've had in years. My worry is if we don't go up, we'll need to spend again - but right now, we're good. The only issue is midfield, where if Ndoye doesn't start adjusting quickly we may struggle to get the ball into the quality we have up top enough. But my word, we finally have real pace and skill up top. Jota and Adams/Boga flanking Gallagher/Jutkiewicz, or Vassell and Adams up top with Jota behind, or Gallagher and Adams up top... there are genuine options up top for the first time in years. Jota being a left footed RW traditionally means he's the player we really needed to make the 4-3-3 work (even if I thought Kief was integral to that). Him and Adams wide with one of the forwards in the middle would genuinely be one of the best front threes in the league. The fact he can play centrally opens up the chance for the 3-5-2 to really flourish, as this gives us enough central presence behing him and can hopefully use Roberts' distribution from deep when we have the ball. I've been saying for months we need three in midfield, but with genuinely good defender we might be able to compensate by playing three CB's and using their distribution in possession and ball winning abilities out of it to compromise for the lack of quality. Alex Song would genuinely have been superb, and if we'd pulled that off, I might have been more tempted to tip us for playoffs.

Overall, I'm pretty happy, and my god, am I excited for the next team selection.

Ravel Morrison is a Myth

Harry Redknapp said today that Blues' deal for Ravel Morrison was 'probably dead'. Lazio wanted to offload him permanently but Blues were only willing to do a loan deal.

The real question is, why were we ever in for him in the first place?

Ravel Morrison is 24. He's no better than he's ever been and this is probably the footballer he's always going to be. If Blues knew Lazio wanted rid permanently, why did we ever take him on trial?

He showed on trial everything we already know. He looks a nice footballer, with a delightful touch, ability to find space for himself and a great passer. But, crucially, he didn't really do anything of note. Yes, he looked nice. Yes, he showed glimpses of being a Premier League level footballer. But that's it - that's all he's done his entire career - well that, and get kicked out of clubs for non-footballing reasons.

The outcry on social media has been... obscene. Blues fans have said Ravel is 'exactly what we need', called him a 'proven midfielder' and overlooked the fact that he's trouble - but not only that.

He's not even good.

He isn't a creative player. He created a goal less often than Andrew Shinnie in a Birmingham City shirt. He scored less often than Shinnie in a Birmingham City shirt. There's nothing outside of a Sir Alex quote from 7 years ago, and the odd shoulder drop to suggest Ravel could be anything like the creative force Blues need.

Forget the hyperbole. Cut through the dense tweetstorm about how Ravel is the player Blues need. Let's deal with facts.

Ravel Morrison got three assists in 2300 minutes at Blues. He has seven assists in pro football. He has 14 goals in professional football, three of which came at Blues. He's played 13 games in two years, without scoring or assisting.

What are we so annoyed at?

Even if you ignore the fact that he gets kicked out of any team he's at, there's nothing to suggest that Ravel Morrison would be a good signing. Even if you argue he's an improvement on our current creative options (which is a disservice to Che Adams, a better player at 21) that ignores the opportunity cost.

Maybe Ravel Morrison is better than signing nobody - but signing nobody isn't the alternative. The alternative is signing a different creative player. Sadly, it's hard to back Blues to find a good alternative given they didn't bother to look at work permit laws, but Jon Toral is a better player than Ravel is. I've talked before about what I would do when it came to looking for players in Europe, so won't bore you with that.

If we're paying Dein 25k a month, which has been quoted, and the best creative player he can come up with is seven career assists Ravel Morrison... well, I worry about our recruitment policy. Stop caring about not signing Ravel - there's hundreds of better footballers.

It's Not 2005 Anymore

Time travel seems to be in the news everyday at the moment. Whether that be Wayne Rooney going back to Everton, the unveiling of the new Doctor Who, or Harry Redknapp's transfer targets. Given the nature of this blog, I'm most interested in the latter, but clearly ol' 'Arry has been inspired by the new Doctor Who and thinks that time travel can be for anyone - especially footballers.

That is if rumours are to be believed, of course. As has been suggested elsewhere, it's possible Harry is smarter than we think, misdirecting the public in order to keep schtum about the real targets. 

However, I'm here to break down why, unless it's 2005, we shouldn't be signing anyone we've been rumoured to be signing.

Let's start at the back. Ashley Cole has been linked to joining Blues this summer on a short deal to bolster left back options. Redknapp seems intent on signing a left back, bizarrely, even though there were cries last year to play Cheick Keita, who was kept out of the side by the good form of Jonathan Grounds. Seemingly, Blues fans have given up on Keita ever being a good left back, despite him being fast, aggressive, good on the ball and an able passer, because he's had a few shaky games defensively. 

I think it's time we remember that Keita is very young. Younger than Che Adams. He's learning the language every day, as well as learning the game. Writing him off as incapable of defending because of a few shaky games (where, in my opinion, he wasn't even that bad) is really odd given the god-given skill he has. 

This is where we hear the argument that having Cole around would improve Keita as he can learn from him. A nice concept, but do you know what else would improve Keita's game. Playing football. Then we hear that Keita should play on the wing, but with very little actual reason why. Fans complained that Grounds wasn't good enough going forward, that he was too slow, his passing wasn't great, he couldn't create and so on. Keita brings all of that, and the same people decide he isn't a full back. So I ask: What do you want from a full back?

Keita has shown nothing to prove he can be a real threat as a winger. He's looked best dribbling the ball from deep and overlapping. He seems very one footed and hasn't shown he's a reasonable goal threat from wide (much like someone else who we'll get to later...). He's a left back - a modern left back, but he's a left back. 

Ashley Cole is over 35 - he offers no long-term advantages, but would represent an outlay in wages. That is to say, if you sign someone of similar skill, but who is ten years younger, you can make money back on that investment. In a years time, when we come to the next transfer market, we're left in the same position; unsure of whether or not Keita is good enough and a few £100k down. 

Giving Keita the minutes that Cole would take is a better decision for three reasons: a. Keita will improve with time. b. Keita is fitter, and more capable of playing those minutes c. Keita is more likely to be a better player by next year and worth a decent chunk of money, as well as saving the wages for this year.

The only disagreement would be if you think that Cole playing ahead of Keita for 15-20 games a season would make a serious difference to whether or not Blues go up. I don't think we have much chance of going up this year at all anyway, and as such long-term planning makes much more sense.

Robbie Keane, similarly, is old and not an improvement. Yes, maybe he'd be good off the bench for 15 minutes. But when Blues fans complain the squad needs improvements, should we be looking for back-ups? Surely we should be improving the first team, and making the current players back-ups? It's a sunk cost, money that could be used on a gamble with long-term upside rather than short-term upside. Use the money for his wages on a young forward who can improve, who, at the end of next year, we aren't looking to replace again.

The next player is Aaron Lennon, who has today been linked. If we ignore the concerns about his health (and truly, I wish him all the best), I still would not want Blues to sign him. He's a player who was so incredibly reliant on his pace and ability to go past people, and he can't do that any more. 

Credit to Ted Knutson for the image, the image which shows that in his limited minutes, Lennon did the sum total of... absolutely nothing last year. Again, he had health concerns and injury problems which caused it, but why take a gamble on a 30 year old getting his pace back, on loan? What's the upside?

Stewart Downing is the best of the four linked. He's a decent enough player, still relatively quick, a decent passer and a pretty clever footballer. However, he's on the way down, he's not played regularly for a season, and isn't getting any better. Also, if you want to go up, seems odd to take a player that your rivals realise isn't good enough for them.

Some will read all this and ask who I would sign, but that isn't really the point. I'm not a professional scout, just a bloke with too much time and too many opinions. I'd be looking abroad. Austria has shown there is plenty of untapped talent over there, with Liverpool star Sadio Mane and Leipzig player Naby Keita plying their trade over there not too long ago. Serie B has a host of talent, and I've been closely following a few names to see where they go. Ambitiously, I'd love us to try and convince Amato Ciciretti, or Camillo Ciani, to come, though they seem likely to be going to Serie A. There appears to be some snobbery about signing from the second division of other European countries, as if we're not also a second division side. The reason I'd be so keen to look abroad is that signing from within England has become an incredibly expensive business. TV money has leaked into Championship prices, with top Championship players going for £10m+, whereas the top of La Liga B, 2.Bundesliga and Serie B go for a relative pittance, meaning that Championship sides can find some edges there.

Planning for the short term is a recipe for disaster, and the best run clubs sign as much for the future than any others. Planning for the short term leads to Sunderland, Aston Villa, Fulham-style falls, and signing aging players is the biggest part of that. Look to the youth.