tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14093607034722103882024-02-18T17:33:06.750-08:00Red, Yellow and BlackAn alternative view on the Blues.Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-59679202585931461942017-09-01T08:48:00.001-07:002017-09-01T08:48:33.322-07:00Analysing a crazy transfer windowAfter a pretty chaotic deadline day that saw four deals being completed, including one that broke Blues' transfer record, it's nice now to be able to take a breath and look at what we're left with. I've been pretty critical of many of Blues' targets this summer, but the player's we've actually signed have been very good, and I'm pleasantly surprised by what we're going into this season with. I'd rather us have done the business six weeks ago, but you can't have everything.<br />
<br />
Let's start with the positives of this window.<br />
<br />
<b>Jota. </b>Oh man Jota. A statistical beast (as one would expect at Brentford) but also one who looks pretty spectacular to the naked eye. Given that Britt Assombalonga cost a reported eye-watering £14m and £60k a week, the £6.5m for Jota looks a steal - especially given he's on the cusp of his peak at just 26. A versatile forward with a superb goal record from wide and number ten, a player who creates and scores goals from all over and in a position we've needed a player for a while. I'm also a sucker for a Spanish creator with a wand of a left foot, so from a personal perspective, what a signing.<br />
<br />
I don't need to dig into Jota's numbers too much because there's plenty of that around, but the headline number for me is 0.58 goals + assists per 90 minutes over his Brentford career. From wide or number ten who came into the league at 23/24, that's pretty spectacular.<br />
<br />
<b>Isaac Vassell </b>is another signing I liked, much like I liked the Adams and Stewart signings last year. It's a reasonable gamble in a market of absurd prices. With Adams, he was just £1.4m and already worth five times that minimum - so gambling on players like that is always worthwhile when top Championship teams will pay £10m for players with a few goals. Vassell is a great gamble, because he has really really obvious skills - his raw physical attributes are clear for all to see and if he grabs a few goals he'll immediately be worth more than he cost.<br />
<br />
The other Brentford lads look like genuine upgrades too - <b>Maxime Colin </b>I'm told is a very good attacking right back though I personally don't know much outside of what we've seen at St. Andrews. <b>Harlee Dean </b>similarly I've heard good things about, but given the competition is Michael Morrison, he's almost certainly an upgrade.<br />
<br />
I'll go ahead and put <b>Marc Roberts </b>in the plusses pile, as that struck me as a very good move. Tall, athletic and capable on the ball, Roberts looks like the real deal - at first. He's been a bit shaky so far, but I'm fairly confident he'll be good in time, and this is based solely on first impressions at the time of the deal.<br />
<br />
For that reason, I'll put <b>Cheikh Ndoye </b>in this list. Despite the fact it does go against some of my transfer principles, Ndoye was genuinely exciting as we needed to add midfielders to avoid relegation first and foremost. A player with a surprisingly good record from midfield for a player of his profile, Ndoye has had a mixed start at St. Andrews. A strong performance against Bristol City showed the plus sides of Ndoye - mobile, a good reader of the game, strong in the air and at times a threat going forward. However, his passing has been... hit and miss so far. But on first impressions, I liked it, and hope he can come good with good players round him.<br />
<br />
Selling <b>Clayton Donaldson, </b>as saddening as it was to see him go, was the right move. He's aging and looks a shadow of the battering ram who led the line under Rowett. He'll always be remembered fondly for the last few years, as a genuinely good Championship player with an incredible tolerance to punishment, pace and clever movement that allowed Rowett's teams to function. That said, now was the right time to move him on as we look towards Jutkiewicz, Vassell and Gallagher to be the ones leading the line.<br />
<br />
Let's move on to a few deals I wasn't too keen on.<br />
<br />
Shipping <b>Cheick Keita </b>out to bring in <b>Cohen Bramall </b>is absolutely ludicrous to me. Keita is a gifted full back with an uncanny ability to get out of sticky situations and a useful outlet going forward - and the idea that he can't defend to me seems entirely unfounded. He's gone out on loan to a Serie A team - Italy, famed for its hatred of defensive football.<br />
<br />
Bramall may well be a really good footballer - he may even be a direct upgrade - but assuming he is is insane. The kid has almost no actual experience and no games to base that opinion on, and not only that, won't be our player next year. Keita would be, and could improve hugely over a full season and give us a player of immense value. Hopefully, Keita will come back next year and be a Birmingham City player.<br />
<br />
I'm also very irritated about the sale of <b>Maikel Kieftenbeld, </b>an intelligent if limited player who was quite often the best midfielder in the side. Yes, his passing and first touch left a lot to be desired, but the way he found space in attack and closed it in defence was admirable - it's not his fault he was forced into a role where he had to create. I'd go as far to say as holding midfielders go, he was our best option, given his stellar performances there under Rowett which certainly dwarf Craig Gardner's recent attempts. I could accept it, had we signed an upgrade (such as <b>Simeon Slavchev</b>) which I think Song was supposed to be, but alas, that did not come off. Instead, we weakened the one position that we were most desperate to strengthen.<br />
<br />
That's the real disappointment of this window - but the most frustrating part is that it doesn't seem to be our fault (well, not entirely). We'd found targets, but hit snags on each one. Onazi couldn't get a work permit (which honestly reeks of incompetence on Blues' part, not the FA's), Acquah was forced to stay once Torino realised he was really good, which was odd, and Song we didn't want to pay the loan fee.<br />
<br />
The silver lining to the proverbial dark cloud is <b>Liam Walsh, </b>who at least sounds like the player we wanted. The fact that it's only a short term loan is frustrating, but indicates to me we'll go in for Song again in January (just a hunch). I'll happily admit I know very little of Walsh, but Everton fans adore him and refer to him as a player who can dictate games.<br />
<br />
The main gripe is the abundance of loan signings. It just screams short termism - yes, we have improved the squad, but if we don't go up this year (which is still really quite unlikely) we'll have paid a decent amount for these loan signings and have little to show for it. <b>Sam Gallagher, </b>for example, was not a deal I particularly liked. He looks like a better version of Jutkiewicz, which is handy, but it's a hell of a lot to pay for one year of an inexperienced if willing centre-forward with a not-too-exciting goal record. <b>Carl Jenkinson </b>was a legitimate upgrade, but without an option to buy, I don't love the deal.<br />
<br />
<b>Jeremie Boga </b>I liked a bit more, but that's mainly a personal bias towards players who can dribble. I'd prefer to get players in permanently, but finding them is tough.<br />
<br />
<b>Jason Lowe, </b>eh. Hard to have an opinion. Looks like a panic buy but on a free, relatively low wages I guess it could be ok. Not one I'm particularly excited by.<br />
<br />
<b>David Stockdale, </b>at the time I wasn't convinced about, as it seemed like a position that didn't need improving on, and I thought Stockdale would be on a fair whack. However, I was one of few Blues fans who wasn't that high on Kuszczak, who I've partially blamed for set-piece problems over the last few years as he doesn't command his area in the air and it leads to problems from wide set-pieces. Stockdale already appears to be better in that regard, his distribution seems far better and he's still a good shot stopper. At first, though, I wasn't keen.<br />
<br />
I didn't like selling <b>Ryan Shotton, </b>as he's a very good centre back and an underrated distributor, but there were rumours he wanted to leave, and replacing him with Dean and Roberts seems like a fine exchange.<br />
<br />
Whilst there are a lot of deals I wasn't crazy about, in the short term, Blues have the best squad we've had in years. My worry is if we don't go up, we'll need to spend again - but right now, we're good. The only issue is midfield, where if Ndoye doesn't start adjusting quickly we may struggle to get the ball into the quality we have up top enough. But my word, we finally have real pace and skill up top. Jota and Adams/Boga flanking Gallagher/Jutkiewicz, or Vassell and Adams up top with Jota behind, or Gallagher and Adams up top... there are genuine options up top for the first time in years. Jota being a left footed RW traditionally means he's the player we really needed to make the 4-3-3 work (even if I thought Kief was integral to that). Him and Adams wide with one of the forwards in the middle would genuinely be one of the best front threes in the league. The fact he can play centrally opens up the chance for the 3-5-2 to really flourish, as this gives us enough central presence behing him and can hopefully use Roberts' distribution from deep when we have the ball. I've been saying for months we need three in midfield, but with genuinely good defender we might be able to compensate by playing three CB's and using their distribution in possession and ball winning abilities out of it to compromise for the lack of quality. Alex Song would genuinely have been superb, and if we'd pulled that off, I might have been more tempted to tip us for playoffs.<br />
<br />
Overall, I'm pretty happy, and my god, am I excited for the next team selection.<br />
<br />
<br />Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-18797889216242452312017-08-17T12:50:00.000-07:002017-08-17T12:50:00.284-07:00Ravel Morrison is a MythHarry Redknapp said today that Blues' deal for Ravel Morrison was 'probably dead'. Lazio wanted to offload him permanently but Blues were only willing to do a loan deal.<br />
<br />
The real question is, why were we ever in for him in the first place?<br />
<br />
Ravel Morrison is 24. He's no better than he's ever been and this is probably the footballer he's always going to be. If Blues knew Lazio wanted rid permanently, why did we ever take him on trial?<br />
<br />
He showed on trial everything we already know. He looks a nice footballer, with a delightful touch, ability to find space for himself and a great passer. But, crucially, he didn't really do anything of note. Yes, he looked nice. Yes, he showed glimpses of being a Premier League level footballer. But that's it - that's all he's done his entire career - well that, and get kicked out of clubs for non-footballing reasons.<br />
<br />
The outcry on social media has been... obscene. Blues fans have said Ravel is 'exactly what we need', called him a 'proven midfielder' and overlooked the fact that he's trouble - but not only that.<br />
<br />
<i>He's not even good.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
He isn't a creative player. He created a goal less often than <b>Andrew Shinnie </b>in a Birmingham City shirt. He scored less often than Shinnie in a Birmingham City shirt. There's nothing outside of a Sir Alex quote from 7 years ago, and the odd shoulder drop to suggest Ravel could be anything like the creative force Blues need.<br />
<br />
Forget the hyperbole. Cut through the dense tweetstorm about how Ravel is the player Blues need. Let's deal with facts.<br />
<br />
Ravel Morrison got three assists in 2300 minutes at Blues. He has seven assists in pro football. He has 14 goals in professional football, three of which came at Blues. He's played 13 games in two years, without scoring or assisting.<br />
<br />
What are we so annoyed at?<br />
<br />
Even if you ignore the fact that he gets kicked out of any team he's at, there's nothing to suggest that Ravel Morrison would be a good signing. Even if you argue he's an improvement on our current creative options (which is a disservice to Che Adams, a better player at 21) that ignores the opportunity cost.<br />
<br />
Maybe Ravel Morrison is better than signing nobody - but signing nobody isn't the alternative. The alternative is signing a different creative player. Sadly, it's hard to back Blues to find a good alternative given they didn't bother to look at work permit laws, but Jon Toral is a better player than Ravel is. I've talked before about what I would do when it came to looking for players in Europe, so won't bore you with that.<br />
<br />
If we're paying Dein 25k a month, which has been quoted, and the best creative player he can come up with is seven career assists Ravel Morrison... well, I worry about our recruitment policy. Stop caring about not signing Ravel - there's hundreds of better footballers.<br />
<br />Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-9067749052765449452017-07-17T09:49:00.003-07:002017-07-17T10:05:35.477-07:00It's Not 2005 AnymoreTime travel seems to be in the news everyday at the moment. Whether that be Wayne Rooney going back to Everton, the unveiling of the new Doctor Who, or Harry Redknapp's transfer targets. Given the nature of this blog, I'm most interested in the latter, but clearly ol' 'Arry has been inspired by the new Doctor Who and thinks that time travel can be for anyone - especially footballers.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
That is if rumours are to be believed, of course. As has been suggested elsewhere, it's possible Harry is smarter than we think, misdirecting the public in order to keep schtum about the real targets. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
However, I'm here to break down why, unless it's 2005, we shouldn't be signing anyone we've been rumoured to be signing.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Let's start at the back. Ashley Cole has been linked to joining Blues this summer on a short deal to bolster left back options. Redknapp seems intent on signing a left back, bizarrely, even though there were cries last year to play Cheick Keita, who was kept out of the side by the good form of Jonathan Grounds. Seemingly, Blues fans have given up on Keita ever being a good left back, despite him being fast, aggressive, good on the ball and an able passer, because he's had a few shaky games defensively. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I think it's time we remember that Keita is very young. Younger than Che Adams. He's learning the language every day, as well as learning the game. Writing him off as incapable of defending because of a few shaky games (where, in my opinion, he wasn't even that bad) is really odd given the god-given skill he has. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This is where we hear the argument that having Cole around would improve Keita as he can learn from him. A nice concept, but do you know what else would improve Keita's game. Playing football. Then we hear that Keita should play on the wing, but with very little actual reason why. Fans complained that Grounds wasn't good enough going forward, that he was too slow, his passing wasn't great, he couldn't create and so on. Keita brings all of that, and the same people decide he isn't a full back. So I ask: What do you want from a full back?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Keita has shown nothing to prove he can be a real threat as a winger. He's looked best dribbling the ball from deep and overlapping. He seems very one footed and hasn't shown he's a reasonable goal threat from wide (much like someone else who we'll get to later...). He's a left back - a modern left back, but he's a left back. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ashley Cole is over 35 - he offers no long-term advantages, but would represent an outlay in wages. That is to say, if you sign someone of similar skill, but who is ten years younger, you can make money back on that investment. In a years time, when we come to the next transfer market, we're left in the same position; unsure of whether or not Keita is good enough and a few £100k down. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Giving Keita the minutes that Cole would take is a better decision for three reasons: a. Keita will improve with time. b. Keita is fitter, and more capable of playing those minutes c. Keita is more likely to be a better player by next year and worth a decent chunk of money, as well as saving the wages for this year.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The only disagreement would be if you think that Cole playing ahead of Keita for 15-20 games a season would make a serious difference to whether or not Blues go up. I don't think we have much chance of going up this year at all anyway, and as such long-term planning makes much more sense.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Robbie Keane, similarly, is old and not an improvement. Yes, maybe he'd be good off the bench for 15 minutes. But when Blues fans complain the squad needs improvements, should we be looking for back-ups? Surely we should be improving the first team, and making the current players back-ups? It's a sunk cost, money that could be used on a gamble with long-term upside rather than short-term upside. Use the money for his wages on a young forward who can improve, who, at the end of next year, we aren't looking to replace again.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The next player is Aaron Lennon, who has today been linked. If we ignore the concerns about his health (and truly, I wish him all the best), I still would not want Blues to sign him. He's a player who was so incredibly reliant on his pace and ability to go past people, and he can't do that any more. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4q4W7w5cy6fgT_0e6M502n0WjMsbvRTWaNUnTqevX1JhVpcrmYWNf5yykwo3o_wDuIYlqEBwchUYSiUwoKA-IdfpA9L7li1DSrTT7tv06jcEQX-Fpa_-PWFyo5nHYRL6TCh3a26QVQS4K/s1600/lennon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1136" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4q4W7w5cy6fgT_0e6M502n0WjMsbvRTWaNUnTqevX1JhVpcrmYWNf5yykwo3o_wDuIYlqEBwchUYSiUwoKA-IdfpA9L7li1DSrTT7tv06jcEQX-Fpa_-PWFyo5nHYRL6TCh3a26QVQS4K/s320/lennon.jpg" width="180" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Credit to Ted Knutson for the image, the image which shows that in his limited minutes, Lennon did the sum total of... absolutely nothing last year. Again, he had health concerns and injury problems which caused it, but why take a gamble on a 30 year old getting his pace back, on loan? What's the upside?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Stewart Downing is the best of the four linked. He's a decent enough player, still relatively quick, a decent passer and a pretty clever footballer. However, he's on the way down, he's not played regularly for a season, and isn't getting any better. Also, if you want to go up, seems odd to take a player that your rivals realise isn't good enough for them.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Some will read all this and ask who I would sign, but that isn't really the point. I'm not a professional scout, just a bloke with too much time and too many opinions. I'd be looking abroad. Austria has shown there is plenty of untapped talent over there, with Liverpool star Sadio Mane and Leipzig player Naby Keita plying their trade over there not too long ago. Serie B has a host of talent, and I've been closely following a few names to see where they go. Ambitiously, I'd love us to try and convince Amato Ciciretti, or Camillo Ciani, to come, though they seem likely to be going to Serie A. There appears to be some snobbery about signing from the second division of other European countries, as if we're not also a second division side. The reason I'd be so keen to look abroad is that signing from within England has become an incredibly expensive business. TV money has leaked into Championship prices, with top Championship players going for £10m+, whereas the top of La Liga B, 2.Bundesliga and Serie B go for a relative pittance, meaning that Championship sides can find some edges there.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Planning for the short term is a recipe for disaster, and the best run clubs sign as much for the future than any others. Planning for the short term leads to Sunderland, Aston Villa, Fulham-style falls, and signing aging players is the biggest part of that. Look to the youth.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-4593003777199533622016-12-18T04:48:00.001-08:002016-12-18T04:48:56.216-08:00Blues 1-2 Brighton - In Defence of ZolaPlenty has been said about the sacking of Gary Rowett and the subsequent hiring of Gianfranco Zola, but I won't cover that in much detail. I understand the reasoning for firing Rowett and, even though I don't like it, I see where TTA are coming from.<br />
<br />
Instead, I'd like to focus on football, and why yesterday's tight loss to Brighton was actually really quite good.<br />
<br />
First off, Brighton are really good. They're second in the table and they're miles better than anyone other than Newcastle. They have and will beat better teams than Blues.<br /><br />Blues restricted them to their average of 13 shots, four on target, but of those, only two were inside the box with feet, which I don't need to tell you is the most dangerous shot to concede. Sadly, one of them was rifled in by Anthony Knockaert. That is a little unlucky.<br />
<br />
Glenn Murray scoring is something that happens a lot in this league, and yesterday it happened to come from a set-piece in the last minute. It's gutting, but Blues were hardly cut apart by Brighton like at Newcastle.<br />
<br />
In fact, this chart from @11tegen11 would suggest that Blues were extremely unlucky to lose this.<br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjELjPCINcYbzmQZ96qK9f83zW5HVb9BO4rT780iFkTJAjDZi8WLTmpzyRDogq4qDAwrDF1noEVUitG1CEqh3WaWhI-SP2r77UIRDg7w8VUNHrAKcgrKxvFK_YBIpP3DCMTilBlG1NxMAUx/s1600/blues.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjELjPCINcYbzmQZ96qK9f83zW5HVb9BO4rT780iFkTJAjDZi8WLTmpzyRDogq4qDAwrDF1noEVUitG1CEqh3WaWhI-SP2r77UIRDg7w8VUNHrAKcgrKxvFK_YBIpP3DCMTilBlG1NxMAUx/s640/blues.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Brighton taking two half-chances is just unlucky, and to suggest that Rowett's Blues is somehow impervious to bad luck and would have won that, as I have seen from some Blues fans, is a little silly. I understand the upset, but it's not Zola's fault that our luck is starting to swing.<br /><br />Even the most hardened Blues fan will tell you that they've been a little fortunate in recent weeks; it seems odd to praise Rowett for Kuszczak having three blindingly good games in a few weeks and yet when those shots go in, it's somehow the manager's fault.<br /><br />So how did Zola go about it? Blues kept the ball much better than in previous weeks and this helped alleviate some of the pressure put on the defenders. This allowed Blues to restrict the opposition from shooting far more than under Rowett, as quite simply, they had less of the ball. Brighton are where they are because they can and do take apart set defences, and Anthony Knockaert especially is fantastic at it.<br /><br />Newcastle are similarly good, and we saw what they did to a Blues side who sat back and tried to soak up pressure.<br /><br />It wasn't until the subs came around the 70' mark that Blues started to sit back and Brighton, as you can see from the above chart, started taking shots and creating, but they hardly took Blues apart - them converting the chances blinds people to that.<br /><br />Blues lined up in a 4-3-3, and passed the ball much better than in previous weeks. There was a clear structure and plan in the passing and Gleeson got on the ball far more than in previous weeks.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Once again, from @11tegen11:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNr6Lk1bEmw5KuuAq8aLxJPndIOiMpF85ncNX3z9f_zmiSjOhNrzyPtAj4etDRGWNpNgSoyq30DdbV3Hm3J3G6xW5jpuyVKaEuU8EEusYcoiecsb9L8fktfJJlv-zdW0y0ePS_dxkLXI_e/s1600/blues2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNr6Lk1bEmw5KuuAq8aLxJPndIOiMpF85ncNX3z9f_zmiSjOhNrzyPtAj4etDRGWNpNgSoyq30DdbV3Hm3J3G6xW5jpuyVKaEuU8EEusYcoiecsb9L8fktfJJlv-zdW0y0ePS_dxkLXI_e/s640/blues2.jpg" width="426" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The worry here is how much came down the right hand side, though generally this shows a clear plan and that Blues are able to pass the ball and create a nice network of passing.<br /><br />David Davis appears to be the weak link here. Where Kieftenbeld created triangles between Stewart and Spector, as well as the midfield triangle, Davis couldn't affect the game as much on the ball. That said, his pressing and tackling ability in midfield can be key and it was he who won the ball back for Kieftenbeld's early chance.<br /><br />The full-backs played extremely high up the pitch, which was a change too, and we shall see if this continues.<br /><br />Jutkiewicz is impressive in this chart, as he consistently found himself linking up with team-mates as a target man should.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
What does this all mean? It means that this, despite the disappointing result and the frustrating way it occurred, was actually pretty good. Some fans will blame Zola's subs - which is fair enough, but I would counter that a Rowett side would have sat back and been beaten earlier in that game. Brighton are really, really good, and Blues restricted them to headers and awkward shots, which is about as much as you can ask for. Blues' lucky streak has started to swing it seems, and that isn't Zola's fault.<br /><br />This leaves us with January - and I have no idea what will happen in January. I think Zola may try to bring in a midfielder or two; I can't see him persisting with Davis in every game. Another forward appears likely, what with Donaldson's long-term injury and advancing age, and wide-left is a strange position. I don't know if that's where Fabbrini will play - given how narrow Cotterill was, I wouldn't be surprised - or if that's a role for Adams, or maybe Cotterill is the long term plan there.<br /><br />In conclusion here, Zola's Blues were good but unlucky, we passed the ball a lot better but sadly got bitten by a bit of bad luck - so let's not that fuel the narrative. Back Zola, and who knows, maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised. It might even be better than under Rowett, the truth is none of us know at this moment in time.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
As always, @BCFC_RYB or @ElliottBCFC on twitter, and a big thanks to @11tegen11 for the use of his data vis. </div>
Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-61914877660921315942016-11-15T09:58:00.003-08:002016-11-15T10:12:17.993-08:00Robert Tesche - A Game-Changer?Much has been said about Stephen Gleeson and his role in the Blues team. Some Blues fans don't rate him, some will defend him to the hilt, some take a moderate view. I think all of them have a point, and even as a fan of his, he is underwhelming at times. That said, he's been a big part of a midfield that has helped revive a broken Birmingham side and his passing range is, at times, astounding; though maybe not as often as we would like.<br />
<br />
In the summer, Rowett added Robert Tesche to the ranks after a successful loan spell at the back end of the 2014/15 season. In the three games he has started this season, Blues have put in three superb performances and I wanted to look at how much Tesche affects the teams he's in.<br />
<br />
According to expected goal data, which attempts to subjectively measure how good chances a team creates are, the three games against Norwich, Fulham and Reading (in which Tesche started) were three of Blues' best. A 3-0 win against Norwich was backed up by a healthy 2.24 'expected goals' to Norwich's 1.52. This at the time was one of Norwich's poorest attacking performances. I covered the Norwich game and the tactical side to it in my last post if you would like to read about how we stopped them playing.<br />
<br />
This was followed by a dominant performance that led to a 1-0 win away at Fulham, where Blues missed a penalty and a series of good chances to make it more comfortable. Blues pressed incredibly well and the second penalty was won by Che Adams stealing the ball on the edge of the Fulham penalty area. Expected goal data had it as a 3.54 - 0.97 Blues win.<br />
<br />
The third was a 0-0 draw against Reading. Blues were once again dominant, this time with Jutkiewicz up top who doesn't press as well as Donaldson necessarily does. Jutkiewicz had five shots, four of those inside the box and didn't manage to convert any of them, but expected goal data was once again impressed with Blues.<br />
<br />
Since then, Blues haven't created over two expected goals in 90 minutes, and Tesche hasn't started a game - obviously this is a small sample, but it's hard to deny Tesche's influence. To prove it, I took a larger sample.<br />
<br />
In his first spell, Birmingham bagged six wins, three draws with only three losses in twelve games, but it's hard to compare that with anything given the shambles that came before it. So I had a look at Nottingham Forest and found an interesting pattern.<br />
<br />
Last season, Tesche started and played over 45 minutes in 16 games for Nottingham Forest. In those games, they averaged a goal per game, conceding just 0.69 goals per game on average, and took 1.56 points per game. They lost just three of those 16 games.<br />
<br />
In the games Tesche missed, they averaged 0.88 goals per game - not much of a drop, around six goals in an entire season. However, they conceded 1.42 on average, a huge increase; worth 33 goals over an entire season. That suggests had Tesche played for a full season they would have been 39 goals better off than had they not had him all season - obviously this is a massive stretch, but it's hard to completely disregard his impact. They were also 0.6 points a game worse off without him.<br />
<br />
Okay, so you could argue that they didn't have a good replacement for him. This year they let him go, which would suggest they thought they did have a good replacement. They are scoring more, at 1.56 goals per game, 0.56 more than with Tesche in the side the year before; but it's a double-edged sword. They're conceding 1.88 goals per game, a huge downgrade on 0.69 goals per game. They're averaging a point so far this season, too.<br />
<br />
So, over 46 games with Tesche on those averages, against 46 games this season without on those averages, you get:<br />
<br />
With:<br />
<br />
46 goals - 32 conceded<br />
72 points<br />
<br />
Without:<br />
<br />
72 goals - 86 conceded<br />
46 points<br />
<br />
That's a 26 point difference.<br />
<br />
Clearly this is very rudimentary - form swings, averages stretched over a season on a small sample can bring wild, wild differences from reality and Forest's squad is much different to what it was - but that is such a huge difference that it's quite tough to suggest Tesche has no effect.<br />
<br />
It's hard to compare Blues with/without Tesche as he's only started three games, but those three were three of Blues' best performances of the season. He allowed Blues to press more aggressively as he is more mobile than Gleeson and intercepts the ball extremely well in advanced positions. He appears to get forward more often and his movement into the box has been great in limited minutes this year.<br />
<br />
I'm loathe to draw sweeping conclusions from this, but I thought that Forest's dip in performance without Tesche was interesting enough to share with you all.<br />
<br />
As usual, @BCFC_RYB and @ElliottBCFC on Twitter for all your complaints!<br />
<br />
<br />
EDIT: Robert Tesche achieves a 121 GoalImpact rating, which is a measure of how much better a team is when a player is on the field.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUGs0VCwuPz-X6Jei3CL4P3B7RnW-Lc7gyNWvd0Ntczz7Zdnh-iD5pfGw6Nzvrq5wu1C7tLtDcYhq7dZppFxCynPqrDEyEIXVYy8kTtlIixCY28dRyN7TajZSb4qS4l5sLcPoITQs9a_ZI/s1600/Px3StFc9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUGs0VCwuPz-X6Jei3CL4P3B7RnW-Lc7gyNWvd0Ntczz7Zdnh-iD5pfGw6Nzvrq5wu1C7tLtDcYhq7dZppFxCynPqrDEyEIXVYy8kTtlIixCY28dRyN7TajZSb4qS4l5sLcPoITQs9a_ZI/s320/Px3StFc9.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
This is about the level of a top Championship player, and importantly is much higher than the average Birmingham player, at around 112. I recommend checking out goalimpact.com for more on what that means, but it's another statistical indicator that Robert Tesche is a huge upgrade on the average Blues player.<br />
<br />
The highest average GoalImpact rating in the league is Newcastle's, at 124.7, which makes Tesche likely a top end Championship player.Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-3779258591742923862016-08-30T02:30:00.001-07:002016-08-30T02:30:37.308-07:00A few tactical thoughts from Wolves and Norwich gamesA change in system saw Blues run out comfortable winners over Norwich, as Gary Rowett's 4-4-2 took Norwich by surprise and exploited a few weaknesses in Norwich's defence. This was a far cry from the Wolves game, in which Blues were crushed in their own deep block and failed to get a stranglehold on the game.<br />
<br />
I'm going to look at what worked and what didn't.<br />
<br />
1. David Davis' role:<br />
<br />
I was quite vocal on twitter about Davis' performance in the Wolves game. He was incredibly poor in that game, but I don't think that's his fault. He has a specific set of skills that really suit a pressing game, which is why I actually think he's a decent winger in certain situations. That said, in the double pivot at Wolves his eagerness to press and lack of composure on the ball really showed up. Blues were forced to go long due to Davis' resistance to dropping deep to collect the ball. Davis touched the ball just five times in a central position in Blues' half - Gleeson around 10 or 11, which still isn't good enough, but it's better.<br />
<br />
More importantly, he was defensively slack. A lot of Wolves possession came in Blues' left halfspace, which should have been his responsibility as the left-sided DM. It's clear looking at touch-maps (below; Blue represents Wolves touches. Wolves attacking towards left) that this is where a lot of Wolves' joy came and allowed them to put pressure on Grounds and Shotton on that side. Davis attempted just one tackle in this area, and he was the only one to make a tackle there.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://i.gyazo.com/55e3ff2bd0f2589555de0fa7371fe694.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="184" src="https://i.gyazo.com/55e3ff2bd0f2589555de0fa7371fe694.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Blues failed to defend their left half-space properly. (Via WhoScored)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Now, against Norwich, he played in a system which suited him. Rowett decided to press aggressively, which was especially useful with Cameron Jerome out, as it meant Norwich couldn't play a long ball over the top in order to evade the press. This pressing system suited Blues wingers down to the ground - I've long admired Maghoma's defensive abilities - and Blues won the ball 12 times in the Norwich half, three times as many as against Wolves. Davis often instigated the press and Norwich struggled to get past it, relying on Tettey to be the dictator.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
2. Central midfield.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
An overlap into the Davis chapter, but Tesche and Kieftenbeld dealt with Hoolahan very well. Hoolahan is an incredibly dangerous player if he can get into 'Zone 14', the space just outside the edge of the box. Tesche and especially Kieftenbeld stopped him getting into that position where he can hurt Blues. Norwich managed to get so far but appeared to hit a wall.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://i.gyazo.com/d41a6888f91acdb885e2bb383aeea98b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://i.gyazo.com/d41a6888f91acdb885e2bb383aeea98b.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
Norwich consistently lost the ball 30-35 yards from goal. (Via WhoScored)</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Predictably, Blues had issues in the half-space on the other side, however in a 4-4-2 with pressing wingers that's where the space will be. Norwich gave the ball away many times in the right half-space and as such, Blues were able to win the ball back nearly twice as much as against Wolves.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Tesche and Kieftenbeld were also more comfortable in playing possession football when we needed to and broke forwards from midfield well - including one instance where Tesche really should have scored.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
3. The Front Two</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Che Adams has made a big difference already. Despite playing in a similar position, he's a very different proposition to Diego Fabbrini. Interestingly, against Norwich, he stayed central and Donaldson shifted out to the right a lot, making a sort of 4-3-3 at times. Donaldson has benefitted most from Adams' ability to press defenders, turn and run at defences and occupy defenders. Donaldson looked much more like the player he was two years ago, as he sprinted past Norwich players, was a physical presence and a goal threat. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Adams collected the ball in central positions in the opposition half 13 times against Norwich, where he can run at defences. His pace and strength are incredibly useful in holding off defenders and makes him and Donaldson a nightmare to play against. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
According to Expected Goal data, an objective measure for measuring quality and quantity of chances, Blues attacked Norwich better than any other side in the league. Blues created an 'expected' total of 1.7 goals, including the penalty, which is more than Norwich conceded in the first three games put together. Given Donaldson created Tesche's chance, won a penalty and then scored, it's fair to say he was a big part of that. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
It's entirely possible this total is conservative - Tesche's chance had only a 63% chance of being converted according to location and angle, but this doesn't take the speed of attack and position of defenders and goalkeeper into account which would likely make it a better chance. Similarly, Adams' one on one from a tight angle.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
4. Conclusions</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
It's difficult to make conclusions from such small samples, but Blues were demonstrably better against Norwich. On the other hand, that system won't necessarily work against every team. I would, however, play the same side against Fulham, whose left back is particularly dangerous. It's well documented that Fulham have made the most passes in the league, so maybe going and pressing them will be dangerous as they may be best placed to dodge it. I would still try it, however, as Matt Smith will hurt us if we try and play deep, as Fulham will be able to hit him directly. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
4-4-2 seems to suit us but I wouldn't rely on it in every game - but Che Adams has to play no matter the system.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-56671453888838837602016-08-03T04:56:00.000-07:002016-08-03T04:56:21.602-07:00Why NOT signing a striker might be the best idea...There's been a lot of anger aimed at the club and Gary Rowett, due to the perceived need for a centre-forward - which appears to directly contradict the clamour for Jack Storer and in some corners, Ronan Hale, to get game time. However, I'm going to make the case against signing a centre-forward, though I'm aware it might be controversial.<br />
<br />
Three points:<br />
<br />
1. Donaldson is actually pretty good.<br />
2. Wide forwards are an economically safer bet<br />
3. Jack Storer<br />
<br />
Let's start with the football side. Clayton Donaldson is a lot better than a lot of fans seem to remember. Yes, he doesn't score loads of goals - but 10-15 goals, or 0.27 per 90 as I prefer to use, is pretty damn solid in a team not set up to exploit the centre-forward in terms of goals. There is a reason that all of the attacking midfielders who got significant minutes took more shots than Donaldson per 90 minutes. Jon Toral was a more consistent goalscorer, David Cotterill scored at 2/3's the rate of the Jamaican international and Maghoma at the same rate.<br />
<br />
What does this mean? That unless Blues change the way they attack, the striker isn't going to get 25 goals a season. Much of the striker's job in this Blues team is as a facilitator, a creator and a link-up man. Many Blues attacks start with a direct ball to Donaldson who finds a winger or attacker and push forward. He is, essentially, the quintessential target man.<br />
<br />
It's entirely possible that we could improve on Donaldson, but it's also quite unlikely for the money we have. Donaldson, were he for example 27, would be worth £3-4m. A player with 0.49 goals + assists per 90 in over 3000 minutes, as well as his ability to link attacks and set off counter-attacks. How do you improve on that for £1-2m?<br />
<br />
The answer is through smart scouting and youth development.<br />
<br />
Blues cannot compete financially with the top 10 in this league. Everybody knows that. That means we're probably not going to go up this year - which would make spending money on a striker who might score another four or five goals this year a waste of what resources we have. In order to be able to compete with them you need to consistently raise funds by buying under-valued players and selling them on, turning our limited resources into larger resources so we can make a proper promotion bid in the long-term. Ask yourself - which players are worth the most in today's market?<br />
<br />
Young, British talent; goalscoring wide players; and centre-forwards, are always worth more money than their counterparts. If Jacques Maghoma scores 15 goals next year, his price would skyrocket - a 28 year old, playing in England, with 15 goals from the wing would cost around £4m in theory if you buy from a top half Championship club. Derby paid around £6m for Tom Ince, who scored at around 0.33 times per 90 last year, though he is younger and English.<br />
<br />
Centre-forwards who score goals are very, very difficult to get for cheap. Blues are a team that is set up to give wide men space to attack - so the smart thing to do, economically, is sign cheap, or under-priced, wide forwards and hope they multiply in price.<br />
<br />
That's why I love the links with Che Adams and Greg Stewart. They make so much sense in footballing and economic sense. If Che Adams has a decent year, his price will double. If he gets 20 goals over 2 years, he would be worth 5 times the price we pay for him. He's fast, versatile, English, young and scores goals from wide. £1.7 or £2m sounds like an absolute steal, because even if it goes wrong you won't lose much.<br />
<br />
Greg Stewart is older, and not English, but he's at the peak age, and should be worth more than £500k. This is a guy who scored or assisted 0.67 times per 90 in, albeit, the Scottish Premier League, from wide. It's a gamble from Blues, should they sign him, but one that makes sense. If he has a good year or two, scores a few goals - he'll be worth a lot more than that. You can sell that and then re-invest in similarly under-valued players. That's how you make enough money to compete.<br />
<br />
The final point is the emergence of Jack Storer. It would make sense to give him game time as soon as possible, and signing a striker will only limit that. Storer is 18, and has impressed everybody in pre-season - it would only be fair to let him play at some point at the start of the season. As I've said so many times, young, English goalscorers are worth a LOT of money. He would only have to score a few times this year to be worth a few million, and if he's as genuinely good as Blues seem to think he is, he will be worth more than our entire squad in six months.<br />
<br />
Playing Storer makes so much sense for the long term future of the club. Either: He is good, we mould him into the perfect forward for the team and we have the striker we've been looking for without spending much money; He is brilliant, and we sell him for £5m+ and re-invest, improve the squad and improve, slowly but surely; or he is not all that great and we lose... nothing. It's low risk, very high reward.<br />
<br />
In summation, Blues aren't going up or down this year, so improving the squad a small amount doesn't really make that much sense. Instead, it makes sense to play young players (Solomon-Otabor, Storer, Brown) and sign young or undervalued players to sell on (Adams, Stewart) and build for the future. It's what Southampton do, it's what Dortmund do, it's what Brentford do (one of the lowest wage budgets, but consistently in the top half) and I think it's what we should do. Rowett is a smart guy, and I'd trust him to buy smartly and have a long-term plan; I just hope the young players get the minutes they need to improve this year - more important than signing a striker, for me.Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-64773883653366438982016-07-13T04:59:00.001-07:002016-07-13T04:59:53.338-07:00Oliveira, Wilson, Richardson and Alternative Transfer Targets It's been a while since my last post, and much has changed. Blues have signed Robert Tesche and Ryan Shotton, which both appear to be improvements on the first team squad. Tesche especially I am a huge fan of, a powerful midfielder who creates chances and gets into great scoring positions quite consistently - or at least did in his last spell here.<br />
<br />
The Shotton signing is a sensible one too. He's young, athletic, tall and versatile, so signing him for a small fee is a good deal. He improves the first team and covers a few positions, adds some height to the backline and is generally a good economic deal. If he has a few good years he will be worth a lot more than that price and if he has a few okay years, it's been a worthwhile deal.<br />
<br />
Many of the players I outlined in the previous post have moved - Frederic Gounongbe moved to Cardiff, Falk Jensen to Copenhagen, Santos to Alaves and Van Weert to Groningen. I still think Denis Oliynyk is worth a look but he doesn't appear to be on Rowett's radar.<br />
<br />
There appears to be something in rumours surrounding Kieran Richardson, James Wilson and Nelson Oliveira, so I'd like to look at them as well as some players who are now out of contract who Blues should definitely look at, if nothing else.<br />
<br />
First off, let's look up top. Clayton Donaldson is great, but is aging and surely will struggle to keep up his incredible running and power over another 46 games. Nelson Oliveira looks like a great option if we could get him in, a player who scored 0.35 times per 90 (not including penalties) compared to Donaldson's 0.24, which constitutes around 3-4 more goals a season. He also took a lot of shots, which is always a good sign. 3.97 times per 90 minutes is a lot, though a big proportion appear to be from outside the area. However, he appears to win a lot less in the air despite being a similar size and despite creating more chances, gets less assists. This could be coincidence - people weren't finishing the chances he was creating - or it could indicate that the chances he was creating weren't particularly high quality. I would have needed to watch a lot more of him to find this out. Given his age and the fact he is a full international, I am certainly happy we are going after him and think it would be a good move despite my concerns.<br />
<br />
James Wilson is a completely different if interesting prospect. He's lightning quick, making him a completely different forward to what we have, but is also surprisingly good in the air, at least with how much he wins. Last year, he scored at exactly the same rate as Oliveira but is younger and quicker. He creates less, but that may come with age, but the reason I would prefer Oliveira is that I think it's more likely we could sign him permanently. Wilson is liked at Manchester United and has plenty of admirers elsewhere, so I'd be surprised if we could sign him permanently.<br />
<br />
I really struggled to find good out of contract options to play up top - I liked the look of Emre Gural but apparently, so did Galatasaray. I think Rowett may have found some great options - goalscorers are rare and expensive so finding these guys on loan is a good move - you can't find them on frees, generally.<br />
<br />
I've outlined the fact that I think we need a goalscoring left winger if we are to improve, and thankfully, there seems to be more decent aged left wingers with good scoring records without a club. I've whittled it down to two who I think might be interested and could improve the squad.<br />
<br />
<b>Anis Ben-Hatira </b>is potentially a very interesting choice. A left footed left winger, something that Blues don't currently have, who appears to like a shot and seems to score a few goals at a very decent level. My main concern would be that he hasn't played over 1000 minutes for a few seasons, but has impressed in the minutes he's had in terms of goals and shots, if not chance creation. He's a full Tunisian international and would be an interesting signing, but I would have concerns. He has scored goals when he's played and for that alone, he is possibly worth a look on trial as he is out of contract.<br />
<br />
<b>Alexander Gorgon </b>is a player who is exciting. He bagged 19 goals from the right wing last year, which even boosted by penalties is still very good. He's reportedly out of contract, and I think it would be silly to not at least have a real look at the guy. He plays in Austria so there are issues with knowing how good the quality is and how well he will adjust, but it's so difficult to ignore a player with such a good record from out wide.<br />
<br />
Let's move to the third and final problem position, left back. Kieran Richardson is a 'no, thanks' for me. Given that he was a winger, the fact that he creates less chances than Jonathan Grounds is a bit worrying from full back. The idea behind getting a new left back is either a straight improvement on Grounds (which I don't think he is) or an attacking alternative (which he isn't either).<br />
<br />
Using stats to find full backs is nigh-on impossible with the publicly available stats, so I only really used chance creation and assists for some measure of attacking ability. It's not perfect by any means, but it's a start.<br />
<br />
<b>Sebastian Boenisch </b>is a fun player. He's taller than Grounds, so Rowett will like that, but appears to offer more attacking threat. He tends to get a few assists and takes a weirdly large amount of shots, which could indicate aerial threat in the opposition box. He's a Polish international and last played for Bayer Leverkusen so it's very unlikely he'll move to Blues, but he fits the bill and much would depend on wages and his willingness to drop to the Championship.<br />
<br />
<b>Nicolai Boilesen </b>would maybe be my pick. 6'1, Danish international, 24 years old and having played at the top level of Dutch football a lot should be quite experienced. He has recorded more assists than Grounds and has a higher pedigree, so may be an upgrade. However, I think Jonathan Grounds is actually pretty good and I'm not sure it's going to be easy to find an improvement.<br />
<br />
A few other options are <b>Derick Tshimanga </b>and <b>Emilio Izaguirre </b>who would be available, but I have very little idea how good they are. Tshimanga has played for Belgium but they are famously short of full backs, and Izaguirre was rated highly by Celtic though we have no idea how well that translates to English football.<br />
<br />
In conclusion; I like the Tesche signing a lot and the Shotton signing makes sense even if it isn't exciting. Oliveira or Wilson would be good signings and both are better goalscorers if possibly worse creators than Donaldson, but having more options is always good. We still need a left winger and I think we should look abroad - Gorgon is exciting and surely worth a look. Jonathan Grounds is good but there are options out there to add to the position.<br />
<br />
I will be keeping an eye on all players I have picked out to see what happens to them and whether it was ever realistic for Blues to sign them, and whether they were actually good, so look out for that. Feel free to follow the blog on twitter at @BCFC_RYB or me personally at @ElliottBCFC.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-28304393745143402802016-05-24T07:27:00.001-07:002016-05-24T07:27:42.714-07:00The State of Play - Squad, Signings and Problem Positions<b>If you'd have offered 10th place to Blues fans when after that Bournemouth game, I think we all would have snapped your hand off.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
But now, having been so close to the play-offs, it feels like a missed opportunity.<br />
<br />
However, the team is, in my eyes, in a better place this summer than it was last. We have players tied down to contracts, we have Fabbrini, Vaughan (who I still like) and Kieftenbeld in areas where we may not have had players last summer and we have a thriving academy. It's all looking good, right?<br />
<br />
Obviously Blues need to strengthen if we want to get into the top six, and there are some obvious areas for that. However, the one I think is most pressing might not be the one you are all thinking about. To me, Blues desperately need a winger.<br />
<br />
Thanks to @Torvaney on Twitter, I have this chart which shows how Blues' performance dipped post-January.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj724Ng-EGM_y3m0aVZH4Zz4VCb3CNMxNmAUg5qE-BLoJ7_v-X5UgqAY7818VJraIGZjP4k41lPTRiBm3cRsHg1H-b3Z8XWunWJkzK9MKH_CkNpO7zDNwGWWl_HdP8KbTYlAeX6-HDRULYo/s1600/bcfcstuff.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj724Ng-EGM_y3m0aVZH4Zz4VCb3CNMxNmAUg5qE-BLoJ7_v-X5UgqAY7818VJraIGZjP4k41lPTRiBm3cRsHg1H-b3Z8XWunWJkzK9MKH_CkNpO7zDNwGWWl_HdP8KbTYlAeX6-HDRULYo/s320/bcfcstuff.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Essentially, this chart shows that Blues were creating enough high quality chances to score 1.1 goals a game, on average, but that dipped to around 0.7 after January. Blues are not a free-scoring team and the defensive style has a lot to do with that low number, but 1.1 is fine for a team with such a defensive focus.<br />
<br />
However, 0.7 is not. After February we went on a terrible run of games and the signings had no impact on the team. We were essentially carried by David Cotterill's obscene ability from free-kicks and whilst having Cotterill and Fabbrini and his incredible ability to win free-kicks (nearly six times per 90 minutes in an, albeit, small sample) means those numbers aren't quite as bad as they seem, we still need another threat.<br />
<br />
This is not shocking news to anybody who watched Blues, but it is a cause for concern. The main difference between the team before the new year and after was Demarai Gray, who of course now has a Premier League winners' medal. Dimmy only grabbed one goal and one assist, but I think his leaving had a huge effect on attacking output.<br />
<br />
I understand that this sounds odd, but Gray offered incredible pace, which allowed the team to transition quicker on the counter (shots coming from fast breaks are converted at a higher rate traditionally), he offered a lot of shots, which though not a lot of goals came from them, you feel that over the course of a season he might have scored a few, and it also made the attack more versatile. One issue we have had since is that so much of our play came through Toral and Cotterill, which has made it easier to defend against us. Gray gave us a third option and dragged defenders out of position, as well as keeping defenders honest.<br />
<br />
Maghoma is a neat player. I'm a huge fan of him especially against big teams as I think he defends infinitely better than Gray ever did and the numbers back that up. Raw numbers aren't great for measuring defenders, but when a winger is making three times as many tackles, it's fair to say he's a better defender. I think we all knew that anyway.<br />
<br />
Maghoma however does not shoot enough for me, and he doesn't create enough for me. He creates just one chance a game on average and shoots just over once a game. That's not terrible, but Gray had a much better output in terms of those numbers. Gray also took players on more than Maghoma did -<br />
but there isn't too much in that. Maghoma is a very decent ball carrier, I just think Blues may be able to improve in that area.<br />
<br />
Finding somebody as good as Gray at carrying the ball, beating players and getting shots off is not easy, and finding a good left winger on a cheap budget is so tough. One player who Blues were linked with last summer is <b>Christian Santos</b> of NEC, who according to transfermarkt.com is out of contract this summer and can play up top, behind the striker and out wide. He has scored 17 goals this season but quite a few were penalties, and has scored around 0.37 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. Given that he isn't an out and out forward that is very good, and given Blues' propensity for creating chances for wide players and midfielders, he might be a decent option.<br />
<br />
I used a few simple techniques to try and identify some more potential players that Blues should take a look at, and found <b>Denis Oliynyk </b>and <b>Rasmus Falk Jensen.</b> Both are reportedly out of contract, left wingers and have some good signs. Oliynyk creates 1.7 chances a game, more than Maghoma and Gray did, shoots nearly twice a game and has scored 0.22 non penalty goals per 90. These are really encouraging signs, though he doesn't take players on as often or as well as Maghoma. That said, Maghoma is a good option on the counter and maybe a more direct winger is needed against the poorer sides whom have consistently dumbfounded the Blues attack.<br />
<br />
Falk Jensen is currently playing in Denmark and as such we have little data on him, but as we know from the Brock-Madsen signing, Rowett likes to scout in such leagues. Falk Jensen scored 5 goals and grabbed 11 assists in Denmark's top division, and has consistently pitched in with a few goals in the last few years. He's 24, a full Danish international and out of contract, can play on both flanks and every single clip I can find of him seems to involve him running onto a ball at pace or dribbling past someone, though obviously this is not a great way of figuring out if he's good or not. It's more a comment on his style.<br />
<br />
That said, there is of course no guarantee that any of these players would want to join, would be successful and won't be snapped up by other teams. However, we have seen with Kieftenbeld that English football can be a massive draw for players even in top divisions elsewhere. I also must stress I haven't watched these players and these are mere recommendations for further scouting. Falk Jensen is likely to move this summer I'd imagine anyway and Blues may struggle to get him.<br />
<br />
Another major reason for Blues' decline was a struggle to keep goals out. We were quite fortunate earlier in the season (which I touched on in previous posts) and I think defensively especially. A powerful centre half is absolutely necessary in my opinion and that's not exactly a unique opinion. Finding one will not be easy, however, as the most obvious options out of England are either way too old, or Dan Burn. Burn wasn't too bad and would suit the style that Blues play - but he's been a part of a defence that has shipped goals and Blues should maybe be looking for someone better if they want to improve.<br />
<br />
The other option is Ben Turner, but I think this would be a risky acquisition given his injury issues. If he can prove his fitness I think he'd be a very decent player, but that is a massive if.<br />
<br />
A defensive midfielder, or more a two-way midfielder, would be ideal. Robert Tesche is out of contract but again he has had injury problems and there's no guarantee we'd get the player who helped us climb the table last time.<br />
<br />
I think every Blues fan knows we need a Tesche-type and a centre half, but I think the winger is the most important part. That really is the biggest difference and as much as I like Maghoma, I think we need to try and improve going forward, because Maghoma is ineffective against the weaker sides in the league, in my opinion.<br />
<br />
Another position that Blues fans love to talk about is centre forward. Last season Blues were a team who created chances for the wingers and number ten as much as if not more than the forward, though this could be partially the fault of Donaldson. Donaldson has been great for Blues but he is 32 and appears to be slowing down, and a lot depends on the form/fitness of Vaughan and Brock-Madsen, but it might be worth Blues finding another striker.<br />
<br />
Finding a striker for cheap/free who has a decent scoring record is, as you'd expect, tough. <b>Tom van Weert </b>looks an okay option, 25 years old, scores at around 0.35-0.45 per 90 minutes with no penalties and creates about as many chances as Donaldson, but he would come from a foreign country which can lead to problems with assimilation and these are not outstanding numbers.<br />
<br />
From Belgium, there is a forward called <b>Frederic Gounongbe </b>who may be worth a look. He's 6'4, scored 13 goals last year and has around a one in two record over his career. He's out of contract and has played six times for his nation Benin. Again, it's difficult to tell if he's any good, but he might be worth a look if he's on a free.<br />
<br />
I hope this piece has been interesting and I'd like to see Blues look at these players, even if nothing comes of it, I think we have to look outside of this country. There's very little value in England and gaming the system is much easier with signings like Kieftenbeld - cheap, underrated and from 'smaller' nations.<br />
<br />
To conclude: Blues need to replace Gray, badly, but finding an improvement up front might be very very tough. We need a centre-back and a midfielder, in my opinion, but we may again need to look outside of England. There's almost no value in Premier League players on 15k+ a week, or Championship rivals who will overcharge us.Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-52597554692156961292016-04-19T03:47:00.000-07:002016-04-19T03:47:03.460-07:00The Importance of YouthThere are plenty of sentimental reasons to play academy players at every level of the game, but for teams whose finances aren't entirely secure, there are economic reasons too. For Blues, this means that our young players have to be given game time if we want to progress - which may be slow, but it could be very fruitful.<br />
<br />
Look at the last few players Blues have sold for a decent fee - Nathan Redmond went for £2m and is realistically worth a lot more, Demarai Gray went for £3.75m due to some contractual issues when he was realistically worth double that and Jordon Mutch went for an obscenely small fee too, due to some poor management from the board with finances. Now, by all accounts, Blues appear to be in a better place financially and even signed a player for £1.5m.<br />
<br />
When you look at that signing, it was a move which was made to strengthen the side - whether that has happened yet I'm not sure - but it was financed by the sale of Demarai Gray. What made Gray worth so much money (relatively) was that he was young, fast, English and in an attacking position. These will always bump up a price, because of the homegrown quota. Attacking players will always cost more than defensive players, whether that be sensible or not. Pace is a quality that is sought after by so many teams and due to the recent rise in counter-attacking sides having success, this is likely to continue.<br />
<br />
So what does this mean? Blues have to take advantage of the inflated prices for young English players by giving game time to these young players. At that age, you really only need 5-10 good games before your price rises to around £4-5m, which is gold dust to Blues. Viv Solomon Otabor is the obvious choice for the next player, with his obvious physical attributes and decent chance creation numbers in such a small amount of time. Viv appears to be the archetypal modern counter-attacker due to his incredible pace and willingness to carry the ball, but needs to get into shooting positions more and take more shots. This will come with coaching and game time.<br />
<br />
Viv needs to play a lot more next year. He needs to be starting more often, and coming off the bench when he doesn't. His ability will be useful on the break anyway, but more than that, he needs game time. He signed a new deal in January I believe, and if next year he has a decent year, he would be worth circa £5m. £5m would allow Blues to sign two or three players to improve the squad, bring some more youth through and continue the cycle.<br />
<br />
If it doesn't work out for Viv, and he doesn't become a Premier League or upper Championship level counter attacker in the next year, then Blues will have a 20-year-old attacker with blistering pace, willingness to carry the ball and hopefully by then a player with decent output. He will still be a threat at this level, meaning we will have to sign one less wide attacker. To me, it's almost a win-win situation.<br />
<br />
Who else is there that could be worth giving some game time? Emmanuel Mbende is a name that has been touted around, as a somebody who is very good on the ball, but maybe not as good in the air as his frame would suggest. Ball-playing centre-backs are another sought after commodity (just ask John Stones) because as pressing becomes more commonplace, defenders who can break lines of pressure with a pass are invaluable.<br />
<br />
Mbende needs to be given a few games in the cup, or even in games where Blues are expected to dominate, as that passing might come in handy. He may even be moved to defensive midfield, if what I have heard is correct. He might not be worth as much there, in terms of transfer value, but he could fill a much needed gap there - which again, makes economic sense.<br />
<br />
Youth is not just a nice idea, for teams of Blues' level it's almost a necessity. Fortunately, Blues have a very good academy and great staff - Kristjaan Speakman seems to be a very good talent spotter and youth coach and Blues need to make use of it.<br />
<br />
With the noise coming out of the club, it seems they are looking to the youth teams a bit more, which is a great thing. Alex Jones seems to be scoring goals, and further down, David Popa and Ronan Hale seem to be bagging quite a few. They only need to score a few at a senior level to be worth a decent chunk of money, which has been proven time and time again.<br />
<br />
Reece Brown is the interesting one here, for me. Brown has all the talents to be a Premier League playmaker, whether that be as an 8 or a 10. Unfortunately, there is little data about him due to his restricted game time in the last few years, so I can't be certain about this, but Rowett has said as much. How we can sort him out, I really don't know, but there is clearly a problem with Reece that is stopping him from becoming the player we know he can be. It's a shame, because he is another that could be worth a lot of money to Blues.<br />
<br />
Blues have to look at the youth, and I think Rowett is smart enough to see that. Young, homegrown players and certain styles of player are worth a lot of money to a club like ours, and that money will help the club compete. We have to take advantage of this by using our academy talents and using the transfer fees to grow.Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-50029562755416576352016-04-07T09:11:00.000-07:002016-04-07T15:21:42.152-07:00Progress, Expectations, Fabbrini and RowettThe last few weeks have been disappointing for Blues fans - there is no doubt about that. However, the backlash has been utterly ridiculous, and anybody who claims that we should be getting in the playoffs is being hyperbolic and revisionist.<br />
<br />
As a stats lover, it will come as no surprise that I read and enjoyed Moneyball and Why England Lose - if anyone has any inclination to learn about stats and analytics in football they are fantastic places to start. Anyway, it's estimated that wage bill constitutes at least 75% of variation in league places, and the only way to beat that is to outmanoeuvre the system.<br />
<br />
In the Championship top 9, Blues only spend more on wages than Ipswich, who are also massive over-achievers, and reportedly Boro, though that sounds unlikely. Sheffield Wednesday was lower at the start of the year, but they have increased that massively since with big money signings and their transfer expenditure is massive.<br />
<br />
(http://www.insidermedia.com/insider/national/146216-championship-club-club)<br />
<br />
All of the teams above Blues, bar Ipswich, have a player who cost more than in transfer fees than Blues' entire squad. Boro have Rhodes, Burnley have Gray, Brighton have Hemed, Hull have Hernandez, Wednesday have Hooper, Derby have Ince and Cardiff have Saadi (who I think cost £2.5m, but I may be wrong).<br />
<br />
To overhaul those teams, Blues would need to take advantage of what Billy Beane calls market disadvantages. We need to find players whose skills are undervalued and thus are cheaper than they should be. Maikel Kieftenbeld is a fantastic example of this. He isn't the flashiest player, but for £140k he is a very solid midfielder at this level. He was undervalued due to his contract, unfashionable skillset (he isn't a tall, mobile defensive midfielder, or a silky passer) and due to coming from a league that there is a lack of knowledge of from the English leagues.<br />
<br />
As much as I love Fabbrini, this might have been a deviancy from that plan. At £1.5m he is Blues' most expensive player and due to his exciting style of play he probably is slightly over-valued in that sense. That said, replacing Toral will be no mean feat given how incredibly good he is at this level. I think it is right to consider this a risky move, but it is not a bad signing. The problem with Fabbrini's signing is that is more of an opportunity cost - Blues needed a defender and a central midfielder at that point in time.<br />
<br />
The argument I keep hearing is that because we finished 10th last year, finishing there again is not progress and would be disappointing, but I disagree. I think we were very lucky to finish 10th last year, and progress is not all about league position. We won a few games 1-0 at the end of last year which is often a sign of a bit of luck going your way in terms of conversion. Across the league, there is an average conversion rate (I think it's about 12% in the Premier League, but I may be wrong) and going over that is generally unsustainable, which is why shot numbers and shot on target numbers are so useful when evaluating teams. Consistent 1-0 wins are a good indicator of unsustainable finishing, though that is not always the case. In Blues' case, I think we were slightly fortunate at the end of last year and maybe a 12/13th place would have been fairer.<br />
<br />
Blues have taken 463 shots from 39 games, with 43% on target, giving us 199 shots on target, or 5.1 shots on target a game. Last year, we took around 5.7 shots on target a game. So we are taking slightly fewer shots this year, but also, allowing less shots on goal. I only have stats for total shots allowed, which was around 15.5 a game last year and is now 14. This means that we now have a shot difference of -1.6 a game, which is up from -2.3 last year. (thanks to whoscored.com and squawka.com for the data)<br />
<br />
Obviously, a negative shot difference is quite a worrying thing, but it is not the whole story. Many 'expected goals' models pin shots coming from counter attacks as more likely to be converted, and as many of Blues' shots come from fast breaks this should mean that Blues will convert shots at a decent rate. We also use a low block defensively - i.e, we sit very deep and allow the opposition to take a lot of shots from poor areas. This often means that conversion drops, which is why we allow 14 shots a game but don't concede loads of goals.<br />
<br />
For more on expected goals, check out @MC_of_A or @footballfactman on Twitter for some interesting work on it.<br />
<br />
Teams that use a low block tend to have very low goals conceded numbers compared to shots taken - see Atletico Madrid or Leicester for good examples of this. Chelsea did it very well last year, getting bodies between the ball and the goal making it incredibly difficult for the opposition to take clear shots and it also means that save percentages rise. A keeper who is a good shot stopper will be extremely tough to beat and it minimises the flaws they may have.<br />
<br />
Blues use this defensive system which amplifies the amount of shots we allow and try and create high quality chances with slightly less frequency. That is why when we are not playing well we look so poor - when we are not creating high-quality chances, we do not create at all.<br />
<br />
All in all, Blues are doing just fine at the moment. To say we have not progressed is not, in my eyes, true, though it may seem like I'm talking rubbish because we're only 9th, and we've missed out on the playoffs, but it seems like we are a better side than last year. However, I do think Rowett has missed a trick recruitment wise.<br />
<br />
Will Buckley was a gamble, and I spoke about him on an earlier blog post, and it hasn't paid off. Ryan Shotton was theoretically a fine piece of business, but playing him at right back did not work. It seemed as though Rowett thought the problem was Caddis being exploited aerially, but that did not seem to be the case. Caddis has proven to be a fine full back at this level, and Grounds is a decent choice on the other side.<br />
<br />
Kyle Lafferty could be a very good piece of business but the worry is that we are paying a lot of money wages wise, which would be a waste, in my eyes, at this point. However, in his last spell at this level, Lafferty was creating 1.76 chances per 90 and taking 3.42 shots, which would be a huge upgrade on Donaldson. However, Blues are a side who consistently fail to create for the centre forward and shots are balanced between the front four, so it is unlikely he will have that many shots.<br />
<br />
Chances created is interesting however, because Donaldson, for all his hard work, creates just one chance per 90 minutes, and Lafferty was creating more than that for Norwich. I'd be very optimistic if we could bring in Lafferty permanently in the summer. I am a massive Donaldson fan however, and think the current criticism of him is very unfair.<br />
<br />
We really should have signed a centre-back, as I don't think Robinson is good enough any more. I think we need a taller, stronger version of Robinson to help when we deploy this low block. It would help us deal with aerial bombardment and physical strikers better and in turn make us a better defensive unit, in my opinion.<br />
<br />
Everything said and done, I'm not too disheartened by this season. We are, in my eyes, a better side, and if we can take advantage of some market flaws we will be a force to be reckoned with. A tall centre-back who is good in backs-to-the-wall situations, a central midfielder who can pass the ball (Gleeson is good, but I feel we can upgrade on him) and Lafferty would be great. We are stocked out wide and we have Fabbrini at number 10 with Shinnie coming back. Some would argue a left back who is good going forward for when we are playing sides who sit back, and I agree, but I think there are more pressing issues.<br />
<br />
I think that's everything covered. As always, feel free to contact me at @RYB_BCFC or @ElliottBCFC if you want to discuss anything mentioned, and thanks for reading!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-1985267473965261512016-02-29T06:27:00.000-08:002016-02-29T06:27:00.002-08:00Where There's a Will, There Might Soon Be A CotterillWill Buckley has, unfortunately, not yet lived up to what Blues expected of him when he signed on a six month loan in January. That might have been expected - he had not played regular football for a while but Rowett believed that with regular football he might find his old form and become a force to be reckoned with once again.<br />
<br />
That has not happened yet, and with a fit David Cotterill back in the frame he is likely to lose his place in the starting line-up. Everyone knows by now how important Cotterill is to Blues, but in case you didn't, he's averaging 2.61 chances created a game. Buckley just 0.89 and Maghoma 0.94 chances created per 90 minutes.<br />
<br />
This looks a bit bleak, Buckley is taking fewer shots and creating fewer chances than Cotterill and Maghoma, and though Maghoma's attacking numbers aren't that impressive he is making three tackles a game - over three times as many as the other senior wingers. Which makes the Wednesday fans who called him lazy look a little silly.<br />
<br />
However, Buckley at Brighton had much more impressive chance creation numbers. He averaged just over two chances created a game which, from open play, is very good. That said, one could argue that in his days at Brighton he was in a more open, free flowing attacking side that allowed him to create a large amount of chances and that Blues' more cautious, less possession based style has affected his creativity.<br />
<br />
Buckley is getting into dangerous positions less and thus is taking less shots and a lower percentage from inside the box which is cause for concern not just for him but the team - as I mentioned in an earlier article Blues don't create a large portion of chances for the striker and instead they fall to attacking midfielders as much if not more. The winger is also taking defenders on less than he used to, but I hope this will come back with time.<br />
<br />
Will Buckley was a frighteningly quick winger who beat full backs for fun at Brighton, and it feels as though so far in a Blues shirt he doesn't have the confidence in himself, or even has been instructed not to be as direct, which is surprising. In his first game he was very good, showing glimpses of that direct, scary winger that Brighton had. If he can find that form he'll be a very good player for Blues - so far, he has been a bit disappointing.<br />
<br />
I personally think that with regular football Will Buckley will be a fantastic player for Blues, because I think the more he plays the sooner he'll get back to full fitness and at just 26 he has plenty of time to get back to his best. The issue is whether or not Blues can give it to him right now. There is only a few months left on his loan deal and signing him permanently would probably be a big gamble given his current form.<br />
<br />
Buckley really has to show what he is about in the next few months - if he does, it could be enough to help Blues out in the playoff charge and earn himself a permanent move to Birmingham City in the summer. He has a great opportunity to get his career back on track and he has to find his old form quickly.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-34489859487620345522016-02-08T05:59:00.001-08:002016-02-08T05:59:22.984-08:00Let's talk about James Vaughan.James Vaughan signed for Blues on loan 'til the end of the season with a permanent deal for a year afterwards after a successful loan spell - or at least a semi-successful one. Vaughan hasn't scored yet for Blues and this has led to a few concerns over his performance.<br />
<br />
There seems to be a little bit of a confidence crisis for Vaughan at the moment and that penalty miss against Bournemouth will have done him no favours. That said, Vaughan's goalscoring record at Huddersfield was pretty decent and I expect that with a decent run of games he would score goals - though Blues are a side that don't create many chances for the striker (which I'll get into).<br />
<br />
The striker in Blues' system is an unusual one that requires a lot more selfless work than say, Derby's. This means that you'd expect them to take less shots and maybe create a few more chances, though many of the chances Blues create are not a direct pass or piece of play from the forward. Often Donaldson's role is to lay off the ball early on in the move to a wide man or Jon Toral. Toral creates a lot of chances (as I spoke about in my Fabbrini article) and I think this is in a large part down to the work of Clayton Donaldson.<br />
<br />
That's why people who complain about Donaldson's scoring record should review their stance - the reason he doesn't score many is because we don't create much for him. Whilst part of it is down to his movement and ability, a lot of it is because most of our shots come from elsewhere. In fact, of the players who have played most around him (Gray, Maghoma, Toral and Cotterill) have all taken more shots per 90 minutes than he has. Donaldson takes just 1.94 shots per 90 minutes, whereas Toral takes 2.82. Demarai Gray took a whopping 3.16 shots per 90 at his time at Blues. From inside the area, Donaldson takes 1.76 shots per 90, making him the second highest behind Toral. Unsurprisingly, it makes Donaldson the joint second most frequent scorer with Maghoma also scoring 0.22 times without penalties per 90 minutes.<br />
<br />
That's a lot of numbers - and often people dismiss shot numbers - but it's the best indicator of future scoring. For more on why you should rate how many shots and importantly, the quality of shots, over just pure goals, check out Joel Salamon's fantastic video:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/BhYRtQf_rBo/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BhYRtQf_rBo?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The reason I mention this is that actually, you'd expect James Vaughan to be scoring a few more. He's having about the same amount of shots from inside the area as Donaldson and a few more from outside the area. That is a good thing - not a bad thing as conventional logic might tell you. If he carries on taking shots with this frequency we can expect him to convert at a similar rate to Donaldson if not slightly better. Last year he took a similar amount of shots per 90 at Huddersfield as he is now and scored at a rate of 0.36 times per 90. Donaldson last year? 0.35.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
So why is Vaughan not scoring goals? That is more down to conventional wisdoms, I'd wager. Confidence, natural swings in finishing, being comfortable in the team and just general bad luck. Vaughan is not a bad finisher - he scores at a slightly worse rate than £9m striker Jordan Rhodes given the same amount of chances (0.4 from 3.44 shots per 90 compared to Rhodes' 0.49 from 3.48) but is currently on a slump when it comes to finishing chances at present. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
One final thing on why Vaughan is actually pretty good - he's creating 1,6 chances per 90, which is over twice what it was last year at Huddersfield, which adds credence to the whole "has to do more selfless work" theory. Interestingly, it's 0.46 higher than Clayton Donaldson's chance creation numbers, so he has to be doing something right.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
James Vaughan hasn't been finishing chances at the same rate he always has, but chances are, given a run of games, he would start finishing those chances again. We have to give him some time because I really think he will come good - and the numbers suggest he will too.</div>
<br />Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1409360703472210388.post-58531059025128056032016-01-21T16:17:00.003-08:002016-01-22T04:42:56.400-08:00An analysis of Blues' attacking midfielders - and FabbriniReports today suggest that Diego Fabbrini may leave Middlesbrough this window, cutting his year long loan short, in order to rejoin Birmingham. Tom Ross suggested that Blues are looking to sign the creative midfielder and with rumours circulating that Rotherham are close to signing Andrew Shinnie, this one could have legs.<br />
<br />
Fabbrini played just five times for Blues, but he made a big impression on the Blues faithful. His quick feet, delicate touch and his penchants for making defenders look silly made him a hit, and rumours of his re-signing have, unsurprisingly, got Blues fans drooling.<br />
<br />
Fabbrini is an unusual player - one who looked so good as a youngster, even bagging an Italy cap, but his career seems to have petered out since then and has struggled to hold down a starting place at many different teams. However, Rowett seems to excel with players who have something to prove, and this is a case where the reward for finding the player who he threatened to be could be enormous.<br />
<br />
However, after failing to sign Fabbrini in the summer, Rowett turned to Arsenal youngster Jon Toral, who has been nothing short of sensational in recent weeks. Unsurprisingly, Toral has posted really impressive chance creation and shot numbers. Creating 2.38 chances per 90 is nothing to be sniffed at, especially from a midfielder who shoots nearly three times per 90. This indicates a player who is capable of keeping up this level of output, and as Toral is only 20, a player who can go on to be a very useful attacking midfielder for any side in English football at current.<br />
<br />
Diego Fabbrini has got less impressive numbers - 1.71 chances created and 2 shots per 90. However, Middlesbrough don't actually create too many chances. Stewart Downing, signed after an impressive season in the Premier League, has only created slightly more than that. Speaking to a Boro supporting friend of mine, it seems they are very conservative and these numbers reflect that.<br />
<br />
The surprising stat here is that the most creative player was Andrew Shinnie, creating 2.44 chances a game. However, he gets into shooting positions less and is a less effective dribbler, which may be why he doesn't tactically fit into Rowett's system. We need somebody who can carry the ball on the counter and Shinnie has a chronic lack of speed and this can cause issues. It's fair to say that Shinnie is a talented footballer though, and might be missed more than people may think, should he leave.<br />
<br />
Fabbrini has scored this season at a similar rate to Toral, and given the same amount of freedom you could see Fabbrini grabbing a few goals at Blues too. Fabbrini would have the benefit of playing with Clayton Donaldson too, who, though he directly creates fewer chances than Boro striker David Nugent, makes a lot of space and indirectly creates a lot more than raw numbers suggest. His presence, work rate and link-up play make him one of the best facilitators for creative players in the league.<br />
<br />
Fabbrini can also play out wide - Will Buckley has come in on a short loan and his pace and dribbling are there to provide what Demarai Gray did in his spell at Blues, but Fabbrini is a very different prospect. Blues have struggled at times against sides who sit back, where the pace of Jacques Maghoma and Viv Solomon-Otabor are nullified. Having both Toral and Fabbrini on the pitch could make Blues a more creative side.<br />
<br />
Fabbrini creates more than Jacques Maghoma per 90, which makes him a more reliable creative outlet against sides who sit deep. Surprisingly, however, young winger Viv Solomon-Otabor creates an impressive 1.93 chances per 90, with a 58.8% take-on success, the highest of Blues' attacking midfielders. Cotterill tops the chance creation charts with 2.5 per 90, however many of these come from set-pieces.<br />
<br />
What I'm getting at is that Blues' most creative team would be Solomon - Toral - Cotterill, but we've yet to see Buckley in action. Also, Solomon's stats may be boosted by the fact he has often come on when Blues are winning and the game is more open. One could certainly argue that Fabbrini could improve Blues playing wide in certain games, and Toral has proved he can play out wide.<br />
<br />
Looking purely from a footballing point of view, Fabbrini's signing can be seen as nothing but good. He offers something different and could make us a more multi-dimensional, unpredictable attacking outfit. What these attacking stats also don't show is his effect on games, especially when leading. Fabbrini was so good at helping Blues close out games due to his ability to win cheap free kicks and release pressure. He also can help Cotterill by winning free kicks in dangerous areas.<br />
<br />
This is the area that stats sometimes fail to illustrate and must be taken into consideration. Fabbrini is a talented player and I'm sure Rowett can get the best out of him. His chance creation stats and shooting stats aren't as impressive as Jon Toral's, but he improves the side in other areas.<br />
<br />
To conclude, Fabbrini would be a great signing. He adds another dimension tactically, allowing Blues to be more creative against sides who sit back, as well as being as good on the counter as we have been. Whether the deal can be completed remains to be seen, but I would welcome him in. His creative numbers could improve with regular football in a less conservative side, and if he can find the output to match the rest of his game, he would be one hell of a footballer.<br />
<br />
Got something to add? Tweet me at @BCFC_RYB and let me know! Thanks to Squawka (www.squawka.com) for the stats.Elliott Griffithshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01268621377424739728noreply@blogger.com0